Raheem Mostert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Raheem Mostert

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 5:02 PM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-108/-121).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 51.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 49.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are an enormous 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
In this week's game, Raheem Mostert is projected by the predictive model to finish in the 86th percentile among RBs with 15.0 carries.
Among all RBs, Raheem Mostert grades out in the 87th percentile for rush attempts this year, accounting for 54.3% of the workload in his team's rushing attack.
In regards to blocking for ball-carriers (and the importance it has on all run game metrics), the O-line of the Dolphins grades out as the 7th-best in football last year.

Favors Under

Right now, the 7th-least run-centric offense in the NFL (36.3% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Dolphins.
At the moment, the 9th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.
The New England Patriots defense has produced the 7th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, allowing just 3.78 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
The Patriots safeties project as the best group of safeties in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

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