Raheem Mostert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Raheem Mostert

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New York Giants · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (-140/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 45.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 44.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a giant 13-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The Dolphins O-line grades out as the 7th-best in football last year at opening holes for runners.
Raheem Mostert's 65.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year marks a a substantial progression in his rushing prowess over last year's 54.0 rate.
Raheem Mostert's rushing efficiency (5.45 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (89th percentile when it comes to running backs).
Opposing squads have rushed for the 8th-most adjusted yards in the league (140 per game) against the Giants defense this year.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-least run-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 36.8% run rate.
The leading projections forecast the Dolphins offense to be the 6th-worst paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.12 seconds per snap.
While Raheem Mostert has been responsible for 50.0% of his offense's rush attempts in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a less important option in Miami's rushing attack in this week's contest at 37.6%.
The New York Giants defensive tackles grade out as the 2nd-best collection of DTs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

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