Raheem Mostert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Raheem Mostert

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 8:01 PM EST

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-139/+108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 52.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 49.5 @ +108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
Raheem Mostert has averaged 59.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in the league among RBs (84th percentile).
Raheem Mostert's ground effectiveness has gotten better this year, averaging 6.19 yards-per-carry vs just 4.78 rate last year.
Raheem Mostert has been among the leading running backs in the NFL at picking up extra running yardage, averaging a terrific 3.29 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 80th percentile.
As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, Buffalo's safety corps has been dreadful since the start of last season, grading out as the 4th-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
The predictive model expects the Dolphins as the 6th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 37.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Dolphins to run the 7th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Dolphins have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 54.5 plays per game.
While Raheem Mostert has been responsible for 53.5% of his offense's carries in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be much less involved in Miami's rushing attack in this week's contest at 42.6%.

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