Raheem Mostert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Tennessee Titans · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 1:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-112/-117).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 48.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 45.5 @ -117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a huge 13.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being projected in this game) generally cause lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and higher rush volume.
As it relates to executing run-blocking assignments (and the importance it has on all run game statistics), the offensive line of the Miami Dolphins grades out as the 7th-best in the NFL last year.
Raheem Mostert has run for substantially more adjusted yards per game (70.0) this year than he did last year (54.0).
Raheem Mostert's rushing efficiency (5.17 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (90th percentile when it comes to RBs).

Favors Under

At the present time, the 2nd-least run-centric team in the NFL (36.6% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Miami Dolphins.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to see just 127.4 total plays called: the lowest number among all games this week.
The Dolphins have run the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 54.8 plays per game.
While Raheem Mostert has been responsible for 58.2% of his team's carries in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be much less involved in Miami's rushing attack this week at 39.7%.
This year, the anemic Tennessee Titans run defense has been torched for a massive 3.90 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposing ground game: the 24th-biggest rate in the league.