Raheem Mostert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Raheem Mostert

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 24, 2023 8:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (-143/+112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 60.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 59.5 @ +112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Dolphins, who are a massive favorite by 9.5 points.
In this game, Raheem Mostert is anticipated by the model to slot into the 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs with 17.2 rush attempts.
Among all RBs, Raheem Mostert ranks in the 91st percentile for rush attempts this year, accounting for 58.4% of the workload in his team's ground game.
When talking about run support (and the influence it has on all run game metrics), the O-line of the Dolphins profiles as the 7th-best in the league last year.
Raheem Mostert has rushed for a lot more adjusted yards per game (69.0) this season than he did last season (54.0).

Favors Under

Right now, the 6th-least run-oriented offense in football (35.2% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Dolphins.
Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Dolphins are expected by the predictive model to run just 64.0 plays on offense in this game: the 10th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.2 plays per game.
When it comes to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, New York's collection of LBs has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL.

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