Raheem Mostert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-108/-123).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to be much more involved in his offense's running game this week (30.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (17.5% in games he has played).
The Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.
The Miami Dolphins have used some form of misdirection on 56.0% of their plays since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
The Dolphins have been the 6th-least run-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 29.1% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 58.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 2nd-worst in football since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the least yards in the NFL (just 84 per game) versus the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season.