Raheem Mostert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Raheem Mostert

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 45.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 40.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.
Raheem Mostert has generated 53.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest figures in football among RBs (75th percentile).
The Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins will be rolling out backup QB Skylar Thompson in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-least run-centric offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 36.2% run rate.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 4th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to be a less important option in his team's run game this week (35.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (56.7% in games he has played).
The New York Jets defense has produced the 6th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, giving up just 4.25 yards-per-carry.

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