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Raheem Mostert

Raheem Mostert Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 17

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
Raheem Mostert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (+100/-132).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 45.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 43.5 @ -132.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year in run blocking.
  • Raheem Mostert has been among the leading running backs in football at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging a stellar 3.55 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 89th percentile.
  • The New England Patriots defensive tackles profile as the 5th-worst DT corps in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.
  • The Miami Dolphins have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
  • The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Miami Dolphins will be starting backup QB Teddy Bridgewater in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 10th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 38.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Miami Dolphins have called the least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 52.9 plays per game.
  • THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to be a much smaller piece of his offense's rushing attack this week (42.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (58.6% in games he has played).

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