Raheem Mostert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (+100/-132).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 45.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 43.5 @ -132.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year in run blocking.
Raheem Mostert has been among the leading running backs in football at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging a stellar 3.55 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 89th percentile.
The New England Patriots defensive tackles profile as the 5th-worst DT corps in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.
The Miami Dolphins have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins will be starting backup QB Teddy Bridgewater in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 10th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 38.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 52.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to be a much smaller piece of his offense's rushing attack this week (42.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (58.6% in games he has played).