Raheem Mostert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to accumulate 15.9 rush attempts in this contest, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among running backs.
Raheem Mostert has been given 58.4% of his team's carries this year, placing him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
The Buffalo Bills safeties project as the 28th-worst collection of safeties in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked the box on just 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 36.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have run for the 4th-least yards in the NFL (just 99 per game) versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box against opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.