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Raheem Mostert

Raheem Mostert Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 9

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins

Raheem Mostert Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+116/-156).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -155 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -156.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.

Raheem Mostert has garnered 57.9% of his offense's red zone rush attempts this year, putting him in the 90th percentile among RBs.

Opposing teams have run for the most TDs in the league (1.75 per game) vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year.

The Chicago Bears defensive ends grade out as the worst collection of DEs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

The Miami Dolphins have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-least run-centric team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 38.7% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Miami Dolphins have gone for it on 4th down a measly 15.6% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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