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Raheem Mostert

Raheem Mostert Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 8

Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins

Raheem Mostert Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+117/-156).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +117.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack near the goal line this week (63.5% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (50.0% in games he has played).

Opposing offenses have rushed for the most TDs in the league (2.00 per game) vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year.

The Detroit Lions safeties rank as the 28th-worst collection of safeties in football this year in regard to run defense.

The Miami Dolphins have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 5th-least run-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 39.3% red zone run rate.

The Miami Dolphins have elected to go for it on 4th down just 15.6% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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