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Raheem Mostert

Raheem Mostert Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 7

Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Raheem Mostert Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+119/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +133 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +119.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dolphins are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

Raheem Mostert has received 58.3% of his team's red zone carries this year, placing him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.

The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackles project as the 3rd-worst group of DTs in football this year in regard to defending the run.

The Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 6th-least run-oriented team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 38.9% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Miami Dolphins have called the 10th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 57.0 plays per game.

The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in the league this year at opening holes for runners.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box against opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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