Raheem Mostert Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing TD

Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+171/-244).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -203 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -244.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Raheem Mostert has been given 54.5% of his offense's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking in the 87th percentile among running backs.
Opposing squads have rushed for the most TDs in the NFL (1.60 per game) vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense this year.
The Miami Dolphins have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in football). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.
The Miami Dolphins have utilized some form of misdirection on 56.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (5th-most in football), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 10th-least run-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 40.9% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.95 seconds per play.
The Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles project as the best group of DTs in football this year in regard to run defense.
The Miami Dolphins have gone for it on 4th down just 15.6% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in the league), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.