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Raheem Mostert

Raheem Mostert Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 5

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins

Raheem Mostert Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+130/-176).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +152 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.

Raheem Mostert has earned 38.5% of his offense's red zone rush attempts since the start of last season, ranking in the 81st percentile among running backs.

Opposing squads have rushed for the 3rd-most touchdowns in football (1.25 per game) vs. the New York Jets defense this year.

The New York Jets safeties grade out as the 32nd-worst collection of safeties in football this year in regard to defending the run.

The Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-least run-heavy team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 40.3% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 2nd-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 30.77 seconds per snap.

The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in football this year at opening holes for runners.

Raheem Mostert has run for 0.00 touchdowns per game on the ground this year, one of the lowest marks in football among RBs (1st percentile).

The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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