Raheem Mostert Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2022

Updated Sep 29, 2022 11:40 PM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+250/-350).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +290 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +250.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers grade out as the 8th-worst collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season with their run defense.
The Miami Dolphins have gone up against a stacked the box on just 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.
The Miami Dolphins have incorporated some form of misdirection on 56.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (5th-most in football), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 10th-least run-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 40.3% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
The Miami Dolphins have gone for it on 4th down a measly 15.6% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.