Raheem Mostert Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing TD

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+260/-360).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 63.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to be much more involved in his team's running game near the end zone this week (46.2% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (20.0% in games he has played).
Opposing teams have run for the 7th-most TDs in football (1.05 per game) against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season.
The Buffalo Bills safeties profile as the 30th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.
The Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 6th-least run-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 39.4% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 119.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in football since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box against opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.