Raheem Mostert Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Raheem Mostert

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+176/-254).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -251 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -254.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
Raheem Mostert has been given 50.0% of his offense's red zone carries this year, putting him in the 83rd percentile among running backs.
The Miami Dolphins O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.
Opposing squads have run for the 7th-most TDs in the NFL (1.08 per game) vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year.
The Los Angeles Chargers defensive ends rank as the worst unit in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-least run-oriented team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 39.1% red zone run rate.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 8th-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 54.7 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins have elected to go for it on 4th down just 15.6% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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