Raheem Mostert Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Raheem Mostert

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 12:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-154/+112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -204 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to pass on 63.7% of their opportunities: the 4th-highest clip on the slate this week.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
With a top-tier 52.3% Route% (86th percentile) this year, Raheem Mostert rates as one of the RB receiving threats with the biggest workloads in the NFL.
In this game, Raheem Mostert is projected by the model to find himself in the 75th percentile among running backs with 3.0 targets.
Raheem Mostert has been one of the top pass-catching running backs this year, averaging a remarkable 2.4 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 77th percentile.

Favors Under

Right now, the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Miami Dolphins.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 4th-fewest in football.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers profile as the 4th-best unit in football this year with their pass rush.

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