Raheem Mostert Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Raheem Mostert

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs New York Giants · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-158/+124).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +140 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +124.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.2% pass rate.
Raheem Mostert has run a route on 57.3% of his offense's passing plays this year, ranking in the 90th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Raheem Mostert's 3.2 adjusted catches per game this season marks a a noteworthy progression in his receiving ability over last season's 1.9 figure.
Raheem Mostert's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 80.0% to 92.8%.
The Giants safeties rank as the 5th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a giant 13-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Dolphins offense to be the 6th-worst paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.12 seconds per snap.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the New York Giants, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 29.2 per game) this year.
The Giants pass defense has given up the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (74.1%) versus RBs since the start of last season (74.1%).

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