Raheem Mostert Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Raheem Mostert

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 8:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+130/-166).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +140 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Dolphins as the 6th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Raheem Mostert has run a route on 51.3% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 89th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Our trusted projections expect Raheem Mostert to earn 3.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
Raheem Mostert has been among the top running backs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 2.2 receptions per game while grading out in the 76th percentile.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins to run the 7th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Dolphins have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 54.5 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Bills defense since the start of last season: 5th-fewest in football.
When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Buffalo's safety corps has been phenomenal since the start of last season, ranking as the 5th-best in the NFL.

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