Raheem Mostert Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Raheem Mostert

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+135/-165).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.8% pass rate.
The Commanders defense has been something of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (38.1 per game) this year.
With an elite 51.8% Route Participation Rate (85th percentile) this year, Raheem Mostert ranks among the RB receiving threats with the highest volume in the NFL.
As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Washington's unit has been easily exploitable this year, profiling as the 3rd-worst in football.

Favors Under

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Dolphins being a giant 8.5-point favorite in this game.
The model projects the Dolphins to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 5th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Dolphins this year (a lowly 54.8 per game on average).

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