Raheem Mostert Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 3:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+155/-185).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 64.1% pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Raheem Mostert has run a route on 52.2% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 87th percentile among RBs.
The Detroit Lions linebackers profile as the 2nd-worst unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Detroit Lions defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 6th-most sluggish in football since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Raheem Mostert has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL among RBs, catching a mere 68.3% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 12th percentile.
The Miami Dolphins O-line has given their quarterback a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all air attack stats across the board.
The Miami Dolphins have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.