Raheem Mostert Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Raheem Mostert

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2022

Updated Sep 30, 2022 2:40 AM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+105/-135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
The Dolphins have been the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 68.5% pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.
Raheem Mostert has run a route on 35.0% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, putting him in the 75th percentile among running backs.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers grade out as the worst unit in football since the start of last season in regard to pass rush.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has yielded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in football (58.4%) vs. RBs this year (58.4%).
The Miami Dolphins O-line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

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