Raheem Mostert Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Raheem Mostert

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New York Giants · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 2:41 AM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.2% pass rate.
Raheem Mostert has run a route on 57.3% of his offense's passing plays this year, ranking in the 90th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Raheem Mostert has notched substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (28.0) this season than he did last season (14.0).
Raheem Mostert's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 80.0% to 92.8%.
Raheem Mostert's pass-catching effectiveness has gotten a boost this year, compiling 8.11 adjusted yards-per-target vs just 5.64 figure last year.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a giant 13-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Dolphins offense to be the 6th-worst paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.12 seconds per snap.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the New York Giants, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 29.2 per game) this year.
This year, the stout Giants defense has allowed a mere 17.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing RBs: the 4th-fewest in football.
The Giants pass defense has given up the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (74.1%) versus RBs since the start of last season (74.1%).

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