Raheem Mostert Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-113/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.2% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the league.
Raheem Mostert has run a route on 50.3% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 84th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 54.2 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
Raheem Mostert has been among the worst RBs in the league at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 5.24 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 16th percentile.
The New England Patriots pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Completion% in football (76.2%) to RBs since the start of last season (76.2%).
The New England Patriots linebackers profile as the 6th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.