Raheem Mostert Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Raheem Mostert

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Tennessee Titans · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 1:01 AM EST

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-117/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With an exceptional 50.8% Route Participation% (86th percentile) this year, Raheem Mostert has been among the pass-game running backs with the highest volume in the league.
Raheem Mostert's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 80.0% to 83.6%.
Raheem Mostert's receiving effectiveness has been refined this year, averaging 6.78 adjusted yards-per-target vs a mere 5.64 mark last year.
Raheem Mostert's 11.33 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season marks a noteworthy improvement in his efficiency in the open field over last season's 4.1% rate.
This year, the poor Titans defense has yielded the most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing RBs: a massive 6.76 yards.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a huge 13.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects the Dolphins as the 3rd-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to see just 127.4 total plays called: the lowest number among all games this week.
The Dolphins have run the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 54.8 plays per game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being projected in this game) generally cause lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and higher rush volume.

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