Raheem Mostert Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Raheem Mostert

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 25, 2023 1:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-117/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -109 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 64.8% pass rate.
With a remarkable 51.7% Route Participation Rate (86th percentile) this year, Raheem Mostert ranks as one of the pass-catching RBs with the biggest workloads in the league.
The model projects Raheem Mostert to earn 3.2 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 76th percentile among RBs.
Raheem Mostert's sure-handedness have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 80.0% to 86.7%.
Raheem Mostert's 7.0 adjusted yards per target this season illustrates a significant progression in his receiving talent over last season's 5.6 figure.

Favors Under

This week's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Dolphins, who are a massive favorite by 9.5 points.
Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Dolphins are expected by the predictive model to run just 64.0 plays on offense in this game: the 10th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.2 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the New York Jets, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 33.2 per game) this year.
When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, New York's collection of LBs has been excellent this year, profiling as the best in the NFL.

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