Raheem Mostert Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Raheem Mostert has run a route on 49.0% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 84th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to accrue 3.8 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 8th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 4th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 54.1 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in the league.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 8th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Raheem Mostert has been among the worst running backs in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a lowly 4.10 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 14th percentile.