Raheem Mostert Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Raheem Mostert

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-122/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 64.1% pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Raheem Mostert has run a route on 52.2% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 87th percentile among RBs.
Raheem Mostert has accrued a whopping 3.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
The Detroit Lions linebackers profile as the 2nd-worst unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Raheem Mostert has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL among RBs, catching a mere 68.3% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 12th percentile.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has excelled when opposing RBs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 7.17 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-least in the NFL.
The Miami Dolphins O-line has given their quarterback a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all air attack stats across the board.

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