Raheem Mostert Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Raheem Mostert

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will be rolling with backup quarterback Skylar Thompson in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
Raheem Mostert has run a route on 49.7% of his team's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
The Minnesota Vikings defense has allowed the 6th-most receiving yards per game in the league (46.0) vs. running backs this year.
The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing RBs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 11.70 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-most in the league.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.95 seconds per play.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-least in football.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Raheem Mostert has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL among running backs, completing a measly 61.4% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 2nd percentile.

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