Raheem Mostert Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Raheem Mostert

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2022

Updated Sep 29, 2022 11:40 PM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
The Dolphins have been the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 68.5% pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.
Raheem Mostert has run a route on 35.0% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, putting him in the 75th percentile among running backs.
Raheem Mostert has been among the most efficient receivers in football among RBs, averaging an impressive 7.66 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 82nd percentile.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Raheem Mostert has garnered a measly -0.6% of his offense's air yards this year: just 25th percentile among RBs.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has yielded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in football (58.4%) vs. RBs this year (58.4%).

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