Raheem Mostert Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Raheem Mostert

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-105/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will be starting backup QB Teddy Bridgewater in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 10th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.3 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
Raheem Mostert has run a route on 51.3% of his offense's dropbacks this year, ranking in the 86th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins have called the least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 52.9 plays per game.
Raheem Mostert has been among the worst possession receivers in the league among RBs, hauling in a mere 71.7% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 13th percentile.
The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (76.5%) versus RBs this year (76.5%).
The New England Patriots safeties profile as the 4th-best safety corps in football this year in covering receivers.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line has given their QB a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

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