Raheem Mostert Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Raheem Mostert

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM EST

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-137/+104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 64.3% pass rate.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Raheem Mostert has run a route on 50.9% of his offense's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 87th percentile among RBs.
Raheem Mostert has totaled a whopping 3.0 air yards per game this year: 79th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has conceded the 2nd-highest Completion% in football (92.2%) versus running backs this year (92.2%).

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 6th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 8th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.9 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.

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