Raheem Mostert Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receiving TD

Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM EST

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1200/-5000).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Minnesota Vikings safeties profile as the 8th-worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
The Minnesota Vikings defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.56 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-slowest in the league since the start of last season.
The Miami Dolphins have used play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in football). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.95 seconds per play.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-least in football.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Raheem Mostert has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL among running backs, completing a measly 61.4% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 2nd percentile.
Raheem Mostert ranks in the 1st percentile among RBs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging just 0.00 per game.