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Raheem Mostert

Raheem Mostert Carries
Player Prop Week 8

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots

Raheem Mostert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-129/-106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -137 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -106.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dolphins are an enormous 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.

In this week's game, Raheem Mostert is projected by the predictive model to finish in the 86th percentile among RBs with 15.0 carries.

Among all RBs, Raheem Mostert grades out in the 87th percentile for rush attempts this year, accounting for 54.3% of the workload in his team's rushing attack.

In regards to blocking for ball-carriers (and the importance it has on all run game metrics), the O-line of the Dolphins grades out as the 7th-best in football last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Right now, the 7th-least run-centric offense in the NFL (36.3% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Dolphins.

At the moment, the 9th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.

The Patriots safeties project as the best group of safeties in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

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