Raheem Mostert Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Raheem Mostert

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Carries

Miami Dolphins vs Tennessee Titans · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 3:41 AM EST

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a huge 13.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being projected in this game) generally cause lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and higher rush volume.
As it relates to executing run-blocking assignments (and the importance it has on all run game statistics), the offensive line of the Miami Dolphins grades out as the 7th-best in the NFL last year.
The Titans defensive ends project as the 4th-worst collection of DEs in the NFL this year with their run defense.

Favors Under

At the present time, the 2nd-least run-centric team in the NFL (36.6% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Miami Dolphins.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to see just 127.4 total plays called: the lowest number among all games this week.
The Dolphins have run the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 54.8 plays per game.
While Raheem Mostert has been responsible for 58.2% of his team's carries in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be much less involved in Miami's rushing attack this week at 39.7%.

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