Raheem Mostert Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Raheem Mostert

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Carries

Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 19, 2023 5:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme running game script is indicated by the Dolphins being a massive 14-point favorite in this game.
The Miami O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the NFL last year at blocking for rushers.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-least run-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 35.6% run rate.
The projections expect this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (only 53.3 per game on average).
The predictive model expects Raheem Mostert to be a much smaller piece of his team's running game in this contest (36.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (54.9% in games he has played).
As it relates to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Las Vegas's DE corps has been tremendous this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in football.

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