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Raheem Mostert

Raheem Mostert Carries
Player Prop Week 8

Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins

Raheem Mostert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to garner 16.3 carries this week, on average, ranking in the 86th percentile among running backs.

Raheem Mostert has been given 60.6% of his offense's carries this year, putting him in the 91st percentile among running backs.

The Detroit Lions safeties rank as the 28th-worst collection of safeties in football this year in regard to run defense.

The Miami Dolphins have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 38.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The Miami Dolphins have elected to go for it on 4th down just 15.6% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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