Raheem Mostert Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Raheem Mostert

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Carries

Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 24, 2022 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to garner 17.1 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
Raheem Mostert has earned 58.8% of his team's carries this year, ranking him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackles project as the 3rd-worst group of DTs in football this year in regard to defending the run.
The Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 8th-least run-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 36.2% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 10th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 57.0 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in the league this year at opening holes for runners.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box against opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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