Raheem Mostert Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Carries

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2022

Updated Sep 30, 2022 12:10 AM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-145/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -139 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
Raheem Mostert has earned 41.8% of his team's rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 75th percentile among RBs.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers grade out as the 8th-worst collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season with their run defense.
The Miami Dolphins have gone up against a stacked the box on just 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
The Dolphins rank as the 6th-least run-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 31.5% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
The Miami Dolphins have gone for it on 4th down a measly 15.6% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.