Raheem Mostert Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Carries

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-116/-111).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Miami Dolphins have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 63.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to be a much bigger part of his offense's rushing attack this week (43.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (29.8% in games he has played).
The Buffalo Bills safeties profile as the 30th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.
The Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 4th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 37.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 119.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in football since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box against opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.