Raheem Mostert Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Raheem Mostert

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Carries

Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ +108 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
The Cleveland Browns defensive tackles grade out as the 3rd-worst group of DTs in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.
The Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 38.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 6th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 8th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.9 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to be a less important option in his offense's running game this week (43.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (60.2% in games he has played).

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