Raheem Mostert Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Carries

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM EST

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-130/-100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 6th-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 46.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to be a much bigger part of his team's run game this week (31.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (10.5% in games he has played).
The Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 118.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
The New England Patriots defensive tackles project as the 5th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in regard to run defense.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have risked going for it on 4th down a mere 15.6% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in the league), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.