Rachaad White Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Rachaad White

NFL · Player Props

Rachaad White

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 19, 2023 8:46 PM EST

Analysis

Rachaad White Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-162/+125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -165 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line indicates an extreme passing game script for the Buccaneers, who are giant -13.5-point underdogs.
The predictive model expects the Buccaneers as the 3rd-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (38.7 per game) this year.
Rachaad White's 69.3% Route Participation Rate this year indicates a remarkable improvement in his pass game utilization over last year's 32.7% mark.
The predictive model expects Rachaad White to total 5.2 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile when it comes to running backs.

Favors Under

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are anticipated by the projections to run just 60.0 offensive plays in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week.
The 49ers pass defense has surrendered the 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (78.6%) versus RBs this year (78.6%).
As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, San Francisco's collection of LBs has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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