Rachaad White Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Rachaad White

NFL · Player Props

Rachaad White

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Carries

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 23, 2023 1:56 AM EST

Analysis

Rachaad White Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-108/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -129 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers offensive blueprint to lean 6.0% more towards the run game than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
The Buccaneers are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a running game script.
Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to run on 44.7% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects Rachaad White to total 14.7 carries in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among running backs.
Rachaad White has been much more involved in his offense's rushing attack this year (54.2% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (33.7%).

Favors Under

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are predicted by the model to run only 63.1 total plays in this game: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The 10th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this year (just 55.6 per game on average).
The Buccaneers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league last year at opening holes for runners.
The Atlanta defensive tackles profile as the best group of DTs in the NFL this year with their run defense.

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