Quintin Morris Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Quintin Morris

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receiving TD

Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Quintin Morris Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+344/-663).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -561 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -663.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the 9th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 63.5 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 40.5 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 6th-most in football.
The Buffalo Bills O-line has afforded their QB 2.72 seconds before the pass (4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Bills are a giant 14-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties project as the 2nd-best unit in football this year in pass coverage.
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.