Quintez Cephus Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Quintez Cephus

NFL · Player Props

Quintez Cephus

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM EST

Analysis

Quintez Cephus Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+125/-168).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -126 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -168.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 10th-fastest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.77 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Quintez Cephus to be a much bigger part of his team's passing game this week (9.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
The Seattle Seahawks safeties profile as the 3rd-worst group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Detroit Lions have utilized play action on a lowly 22.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

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