Quintez Cephus Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Quintez Cephus

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 3, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Quintez Cephus Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 10th-fastest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.77 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Quintez Cephus to be a much bigger part of his team's passing game this week (9.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.15 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-most in football.
The Seattle Seahawks safeties profile as the 3rd-worst group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.
Quintez Cephus has received a puny 0.0% of his offense's air yards this year: a lowly 2nd percentile among wideouts.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Detroit Lions have utilized play action on a lowly 22.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.