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Quez Watkins

Quez Watkins Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
Quez Watkins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+106/-139).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +145 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +106.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 7th-fastest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.58 seconds per play.
  • THE BLITZ projects Quez Watkins to be much more involved in his offense's passing game this week (16.8% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (9.2% in games he has played).
  • The Philadelphia Eagles O-line ranks as the best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing game stats across the board.
  • Quez Watkins's possession skills have improved this year, with his Completion% jumping from 67.0% to 78.8%.
  • The Chicago Bears pass defense has given up the 7th-highest Completion% in the NFL (70%) to wide receivers this year (70.0%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Eagles are a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 3rd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 48.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in football.

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