Quez Watkins Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

NFL · Player Props

Quez Watkins

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 1:16 AM EST

Analysis

Quez Watkins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Philadelphia Eagles boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 1.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
This game's spread implies a throwing game script for the Eagles, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
The Philadelphia offensive line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Quez Watkins profiles as one of the top wideouts in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging an excellent 5.78 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 90th percentile.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 28.60 seconds per play.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 3rd-fewest in football.
After totaling 28.0 air yards per game last season, Quez Watkins has gotten worse this season, currently sitting at 15.0 per game.
Quez Watkins's 13.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 22.9.
With a weak 6.7 adjusted yards per target (9th percentile) since the start of last season, Quez Watkins ranks as one of the worst WRs in the NFL in football.